Value/share = (PV of forecast FCF + PV of terminal value - net debt) / diluted shares$163.56WACC 7% | g 2.5%
5.4x EV/EBITDA | 13x P/E
Enterprise value $219.9B
Value/share = equity value / diluted shares1,253,446,000Net debt $14.9B
ConocoPhillips (COP) Forecast, Valuation and Price Target
This section connects ConocoPhillips forecast and analysis language to the public valuation view, target price, and earnings context.
ConocoPhillips (COP) is valued here with a $157.53 target price versus a current price of $134.26.
The base DCF intrinsic value is $163.56 per share using a 7% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth assumption.
The screened peer set shows median multiples of 5.4x EV/EBITDA and 13x P/E, producing a midpoint of $139.44.
Growth and Investment Outlook
The public outlook section keeps COP forecast, earnings context, and target-price framing visible before the deeper valuation tables and report body.
The model starts from -1.2% revenue growth and fades toward 2.3% steady-state growth under a turnaround forecast profile.
The current public outlook is HOLD, with a $157.53 target price and 17.3% modeled upside/downside. The main valuation cross-check is the DCF value of $163.56 per share.
Analyst estimate inputs are used where available for forecast years 1, 2, 3. This page is not an external analyst-ratings feed; it is a public valuation note built from the available report data.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Revenue growth | Net income | Net income growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $56.1B | -28.5% | $11.0B | -41.3% |
| 2024 | $54.7B | -2.5% | $9.2B | -15.6% |
| 2025 | $58.9B | 7.7% | $8.0B | -13.6% |
Investment Summary
The call, the valuation anchor, and the main risk in one view.
HOLD ConocoPhillips is rated HOLD with a target price of $157.53 versus the current price of $134.26.
The DCF implies $163.56 per share and the comparable midpoint lands at $139.44.
First, revenue growth could decelerate faster than the model fade path, especially if current market demand is cyclical.
Key Data
Quick facts investors usually scan first.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Market Cap
- $163.6B
- Revenue
- $58.9B
- Free Cash Flow
- $16.8B
Latest Update / What Changed
Updates focus on what changed in the rating, target price, valuation assumptions, peer context, and main risks.
Still HOLD
+$0.00 versus the prior published target of $157.53.
Last captured on 9/7/2026 with 17.3% modeled upside.
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Revenue Growth
Historical revenue plus a 5-year forecast shaped by analyst estimates in the early years and a rules-based turnaround fade after that.
Price History
Use the range selector to compare shorter and longer setups.
DCF Sensitivity Grid
The grid shows DCF-only value per share across WACC and terminal growth assumptions. The published target price can differ because it blends DCF with market comparables.
Base-case DCF and the center cell should reconcile closely because both use the same blended terminal-value method (7% WACC / 2.5% g). The published target then applies a 25% comparable overlay to the DCF value.
Base-case cell: $163.56 using 7% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth.
| WACC \ g | 1.5% | 2% | 2.5% | 3% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | $200.59 | $217.58 | $241.36 | $277.04 | $336.51 |
| 6% | $170.56 | $180.11 | $192.37 | $208.73 | $231.63 |
| 7% | $150.19 | $156.21 | $163.56 | $172.75 | $184.57 |
| 8% | $135.10 | $139.19 | $144.02 | $149.81 | $156.90 |
| 9% | $123.25 | $126.18 | $129.56 | $133.49 | $138.15 |
Peer Multiples
Simple comparable valuation cross-check using selected public-market peers.
6 selected peers were included in the valuation cross-check.
5.4x EV/EBITDA and 13x P/E.
$125.78 to $153.10, midpoint $139.44.
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Revision History
Pro keeps the revision trail for refreshed reports so changes in target price, rating, and assumptions are easy to inspect.
Unlock revision historyWhat drives this valuation
These are inputs and calculations from the saved report, not live market updates or a forecast of investment returns.
Discount rate and evidence
WACC: 7%. Risk-free assumption: 4.8%. Equity risk premium: 4.5%.
Risk-free input: cache:financial-modeling-prep · as of 2026-09-04. Premium input: cache:financial-modeling-prep · as of 2026-09-07.
Beyond the explicit forecast
Terminal growth: 2.5%. Exit multiple: 8×. The model averages the growth-based and exit-multiple terminal values.
Multiple source not recorded. Discounted terminal value accounts for 80.3% of modeled enterprise value.
Operating assumptions
Normalized EBIT margin: 27.2%. Capex/revenue: 15.8%. Working capital/revenue: 8.4%. These ratios shape forecast cash flow.
Analyst revenue anchors are recorded for forecast years 1, 2, 3; other operating inputs can still use model estimates.
Financial periods and shares
Share-count source not recorded: 1,253,446,000.
Matched statement periods were not recorded in this snapshot. Matching periods does not independently verify the provider's facts.
- At least 70% of modeled enterprise value comes from the discounted terminal value. Long-run assumptions dominate this result.
- This older snapshot does not record period-matching, share-count or terminal-multiple provenance. These have not been retroactively verified.
Sensitivity varies discount rate and terminal growth while keeping forecast cash flows, exit multiple, net debt and shares fixed. It does not capture an operating downturn, dilution or all company risks. Its range is not a confidence interval and carries no assigned probabilities.
Lower, base, and higher DCF grid values
These are discount-rate and terminal-growth cases, not separate business forecasts. No probability or expected return is implied.
Pro turns the public sensitivity grid into named cases so you can compare downside and upside assumptions quickly across every stock you track.
Unlock scenario casesHow to Read the Valuation
Plain-English definitions for the main inputs and outputs.
The base-case valuation discounts forecast cash flows using a WACC of 7%. The cost of equity starts from a risk-free assumption of 4.8% as of Sep 4, 2026. Higher discount rates reduce present value, while lower ones increase it.
After year five, the model uses a terminal growth rate of 2.5% to estimate continuing value. In the base case, terminal value is blended with an exit-multiple cross-check rather than relying on perpetuity growth alone.
Revenue starts from -1.2% and fades toward a steady-state growth rate of 2.3% under a turnaround profile. Analyst revenue anchors are recorded for forecast years 1, 2, 3; other inputs may remain model estimates.
Peer multiples anchor a market-based valuation range and help test whether the DCF output looks reasonable relative to similar businesses. The published target price currently uses a 75% DCF / 25% comparable blend, which is why it can differ from the DCF sensitivity grid.
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Company Snapshot
- Sector: Energy
- Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Exchange: NYSE
- Current Price: $134.26
- Target Price: $157.53
- Recommendation: HOLD
- Market Cap: $163.6B
ConocoPhillips screens HOLD with a blended target price of $157.53, versus a current price of $134.26 and modeled upside of 17.3%.
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips screens as a HOLD because the valuation model points to 17.3% upside versus the current market price. The DCF carries most of the target price and is supported by a business that still compounds from a $58.9B revenue base while sustaining 23.6% EBIT margins.
Business Overview
ConocoPhillips operates in oil & gas exploration & production within the energy sector. The company is modeled as a US-listed business with revenue in USD and exchange exposure through NYSE. The current comparable set is anchored around EOG, DVN, EQT, OVV, OXY, EXE. The current report structure is built for equity research use cases: company snapshot, thesis, financial analysis, valuation, and risk framing.
Financial Analysis
Historical statements indicate a business with improving operating leverage and positive free cash flow generation. Our rules-based forecast extends that pattern over five years using normalized revenue growth, margin stabilization, capital intensity, and working capital behavior. DCF fair value lands at $163.56 per share, while the blended target price after applying comparable valuation support is $157.53. Comparable medians of 5.4x EV/EBITDA and 13x P/E across EOG, DVN, EQT, OVV, OXY, EXE frame a $125.78 to $153.10 fair value range.
Latest Reported Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $58.9B |
| EBIT | $13.9B |
| EBITDA | $25.6B |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.8B |
| Diluted Shares | 1,253,446,000 |
DCF Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Intrinsic Value / Share | $163.56 |
| Forecast Profile | turnaround |
| Starting Growth | -1.2% |
| Steady-State Growth | 2.3% |
| Risk-Free Rate | 4.8% |
| Equity Risk Premium | 4.5% |
| WACC | 7% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Exit Multiple | 8x |
| Enterprise Value | $219.9B |
| Equity Value | $205.0B |
| Upside / Downside | 17.3% |
Comparable Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Comparable Coverage | 6 peers |
| Peer Set Support | Included in cross-check |
| Median EV/EBITDA | 5.4x |
| Median P/E | 13x |
| Fair Value Low | $125.78 |
| Fair Value High | $153.10 |
| Fair Value Mid | $139.44 |
| Peer | EV/EBITDA | P/E |
|---|---|---|
| EOG | 5.5x | 11.5x |
| DVN | 4x | 8.7x |
| EQT | 7x | 16.1x |
| OVV | 5.2x | 8.1x |
| OXY | 5.3x | 24.3x |
| EXE | 5.6x | 14.4x |
Risks
Key risks remain tied to the model assumptions. First, revenue growth could decelerate faster than the model fade path, especially if current market demand is cyclical. Second, margin normalization may prove too optimistic if price competition, mix shift, or incremental operating expense dilute returns. Third, valuation is sensitive to the discount rate: WACC at 7% and terminal growth at 2.5% are reasonable base assumptions, but even modest moves in either direction can materially shift intrinsic value.
Common valuation questions
Short answers built from the same public report data, valuation assumptions, and peer context shown above.
What is the current price target for ConocoPhillips (COP) stock?
The current public note carries a HOLD view with a $157.53 target price versus $134.26 today, implying 17.3% modeled upside/downside.
What intrinsic value does the DCF imply for COP?
The base-case DCF on this page implies $163.56 per share before any comparable overlay, which is why it remains the core valuation anchor in the public report.
What WACC and terminal growth assumptions are used in the COP valuation?
The public DCF uses a 7% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth assumption. Analyst estimate inputs are used where available for forecast years 1, 2, 3.
What is the current COP growth and investment outlook?
The current public view on ConocoPhillips (COP) is HOLD, with a $157.53 target price versus $134.26 today. The model starts from -1.2% revenue growth and fades toward 2.3% in the steady state.
Research Notes and Disclaimer
Important context around timing, methodology, and usage.
Published September 8, 2026. Market data is shown as of Sep 4, 2026 and financial statements run through Dec 31, 2025.
Valuation outputs are rules-based. Written commentary is based on structured report data and should be read alongside the valuation tables and sensitivity analysis. The risk-free rate is sourced from cache:financial-modeling-prep.
This report is provided for information only and does not take into account your objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances.
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