Value/share = (PV of forecast FCF + PV of terminal value - net debt) / diluted shares$501.10WACC 9.2% | g 2.5%
Insufficient peer coverage for a publishable comps set.
Enterprise value $3.8T
Value/share = equity value / diluted shares7,465,000,000Net debt $68.1B
Microsoft (MSFT) WACC, Intrinsic Value and Price Target
This section connects Microsoft WACC, stock valuation, intrinsic value, and target-price language to the public valuation framing.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is valued here with a $501.10 target price versus a current price of $390.74.
The base DCF intrinsic value is $501.10 per share using a 9.2% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth assumption.
Comparable valuation is not blended into the published target because the available peer set was not strong enough for a reliable range.
Growth and Investment Outlook
The public outlook section keeps MSFT valuation framing, WACC context, and intrinsic-value assumptions visible before the deeper model detail.
The model starts from 13.7% revenue growth and fades toward 3.3% steady-state growth under a compounder forecast profile.
The current public outlook is BUY, with a $501.10 target price and 28.2% modeled upside/downside. The main valuation cross-check is the DCF value of $501.10 per share.
Analyst estimate inputs are used where available for forecast years 1, 2, 3. This page is not an external analyst-ratings feed; it is a public valuation note built from the available report data.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Revenue growth | Net income | Net income growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $211.9B | 6.9% | $72.4B | -0.5% |
| 2024 | $245.1B | 15.7% | $88.1B | 21.8% |
| 2025 | $281.7B | 14.9% | $101.8B | 15.5% |
Investment Summary
The call, the valuation anchor, and the main risk in one view.
BUY Microsoft Corporation is rated BUY with a target price of $501.10 versus the current price of $390.74.
The DCF implies $501.10 per share. Comparable valuation is excluded here because the available peer set was not strong enough for a reliable range.
Investing in Microsoft Corporation carries inherent risks typical of the technology sector, including intense competition, rapid technological change, and potential shifts in customer preferences.
Key Data
Quick facts investors usually scan first.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Market Cap
- $2.9T
- Revenue
- $281.7B
- Free Cash Flow
- $71.6B
Latest Update / What Changed
Updates focus on what changed in the rating, target price, valuation assumptions, peer context, and main risks.
This is the first version of this note. Future refreshes will summarize the main rating, target, valuation, peer, and risk changes here.
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Revenue Growth
Historical revenue plus a 5-year forecast shaped by analyst estimates in the early years and a rules-based compounder fade after that.
Price History
Use the range selector to compare shorter and longer setups.
DCF Sensitivity Grid
The grid shows DCF-only value per share across WACC and terminal growth assumptions. The published target price can differ because it currently relies on DCF only.
Base-case DCF and the center cell should reconcile closely because both use the same blended terminal-value method (9.2% WACC / 2.5% g). The published target currently equals the DCF output because comparable coverage was insufficient.
Base-case cell: $501.64 using 9.2% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth.
| WACC \ g | 1.5% | 2% | 2.5% | 3% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $566.43 | $579.30 | $594.91 | $614.23 | $638.75 |
| 8.2% | $523.45 | $532.30 | $542.71 | $555.12 | $570.16 |
| 9.2% | $487.89 | $494.29 | $501.64 | $510.18 | $520.21 |
| 10.2% | $457.48 | $462.27 | $467.69 | $473.86 | $480.95 |
| 11.2% | $430.84 | $434.54 | $438.66 | $443.29 | $448.51 |
Peer Multiples
Simple comparable valuation cross-check using selected public-market peers.
Comparable valuation is not shown because fewer than three suitable peers had usable valuation data after screening for industry, size, and exchange.
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Revision History
Pro keeps the revision trail for refreshed reports so changes in target price, rating, and assumptions are easy to inspect.
Unlock revision historyBear, base, and bull valuation cases
Cases come from the report's published WACC and terminal-growth sensitivity grid.
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Unlock scenario casesHow to Read the Valuation
Plain-English definitions for the main inputs and outputs.
The base-case valuation discounts forecast cash flows using a WACC of 9.2%. The cost of equity starts from a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5% as of Jun 12, 2026. Higher discount rates reduce present value, while lower ones increase it.
After year five, the model uses a terminal growth rate of 2.5% to estimate continuing value. In the base case, terminal value is blended with an exit-multiple cross-check rather than relying on perpetuity growth alone.
Revenue starts from 13.7% and fades toward a steady-state growth rate of 3.3% under a compounder profile. The first 3 forecast years use analyst estimates where coverage is available.
Peer multiples anchor a market-based valuation range and help test whether the DCF output looks reasonable relative to similar businesses. If the available peer set is not strong enough, the published target stays DCF-only.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Company Snapshot
- Sector: Technology
- Industry: Software - Infrastructure
- Exchange: NASDAQ
- Current Price: $390.74
- Target Price: $501.10
- Recommendation: BUY
- Market Cap: $2.9T
Microsoft Corporation screens BUY with a DCF-based target price of $501.10, versus a current price of $390.74 and modeled upside of 28.2%.
Investment Thesis
We issue a BUY recommendation for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) with a target price of 501.1 USD, representing an upside of 28.24% from its current price of 390.74 USD. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis indicates an intrinsic value per share of 501.1 USD, supported by robust financial performance including 281.72 billion USD in revenue, 126.01 billion USD in EBIT, 160.17 billion USD in EBITDA, and 71.61 billion USD in free cash flow.
Business Overview
Microsoft Corporation is a global technology firm operating in the Software - Infrastructure industry within the Technology sector. The company's operations are structured into three primary divisions: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers tools like the Office suite, Dynamics 365, and LinkedIn. The Intelligent Cloud division focuses on sophisticated infrastructure and platform services, including Azure, SQL Server, and GitHub. The More Personal Computing segment covers Windows operating system licensing, Surface devices, Xbox, and Bing search services. Established in 1975, Microsoft is headquartered in Redmond, Washington, and employs 228,000 individuals.
Financial Analysis
Microsoft Corporation demonstrates strong financial health with reported revenue of 281.72 billion USD, EBIT of 126.01 billion USD, EBITDA of 160.17 billion USD, and free cash flow of 71.61 billion USD. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) model, utilizing a WACC of 9.21%, a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, and a terminal exit multiple of 26.6, yields an intrinsic value per share of 501.1 USD. Comparable valuation is unavailable.
Latest Reported Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $281.7B |
| EBIT | $126.0B |
| EBITDA | $160.2B |
| Free Cash Flow | $71.6B |
| Diluted Shares | 7,465,000,000 |
DCF Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Intrinsic Value / Share | $501.10 |
| Forecast Profile | compounder |
| Starting Growth | 13.7% |
| Steady-State Growth | 3.3% |
| Risk-Free Rate | 4.5% |
| Equity Risk Premium | 4.5% |
| WACC | 9.2% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Exit Multiple | 26.6x |
| Enterprise Value | $3.8T |
| Equity Value | $3.7T |
| Upside / Downside | 28.2% |
Comparable Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Comparable Coverage | Insufficient |
| Peer Set Support | N/A |
| Median EV/EBITDA | N/A |
| Median P/E | N/A |
| Fair Value Low | N/A |
| Fair Value High | N/A |
| Fair Value Mid | N/A |
Comparable valuation is unavailable because there are not enough suitable peers with usable valuation data.
Risks
Investing in Microsoft Corporation carries inherent risks typical of the technology sector, including intense competition, rapid technological change, and potential shifts in customer preferences. Economic downturns or regulatory changes could also impact the company's financial performance. Furthermore, the company's global operations expose it to foreign exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties, which could affect its revenue and profitability.
Common valuation questions
Short answers built from the same public report data, valuation assumptions, and peer context shown above.
What is the current price target for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) stock?
The current public note carries a BUY view with a $501.10 target price versus $390.74 today, implying 28.2% modeled upside/downside.
What intrinsic value does the DCF imply for MSFT?
The base-case DCF on this page implies $501.10 per share before any comparable overlay, which is why it remains the core valuation anchor in the public report.
What WACC and terminal growth assumptions are used in the MSFT valuation?
The public DCF uses a 9.2% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth assumption. Analyst estimate inputs are used where available for forecast years 1, 2, 3.
What is the current MSFT growth and investment outlook?
The current public view on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is BUY, with a $501.10 target price versus $390.74 today. The model starts from 13.7% revenue growth and fades toward 3.3% in the steady state.
Research Notes and Disclaimer
Important context around timing, methodology, and usage.
Published June 15, 2026. Market data is shown as of Jun 12, 2026 and financial statements run through Jun 30, 2025.
Valuation outputs are rules-based. Written commentary is based on structured report data and should be read alongside the valuation tables and sensitivity analysis. The risk-free rate is sourced from cache:financial-modeling-prep.
This report is provided for information only and does not take into account your objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances.
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