Public Research Note

The Equity Note

Nike (NKE) Valuation: WACC, Intrinsic Value and Cost of Capital Review

This NKE report focuses on Nike valuation, intrinsic value, WACC, and cost of capital using the current DCF model, peer context, and visible risk assumptions.

NIKE, Inc. screens BUY with a DCF-based target price of $53.93, versus a current price of $40.06 and modeled upside of 34.6%.

BUYConsumer CyclicalDCF-led valuation
Current$40.06Target$53.93

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Current View
BUY$53.93 target vs $40.06

Current Price

$40.06

Target Price

$53.93

Market Cap

$59.3B

Published

August 19, 2026

Market Data

Aug 18, 2026
DCF Value / Share iDCFDiscounted cash flow values a business by forecasting future free cash flow and discounting it back to the present.Value/share = (PV of forecast FCF + PV of terminal value - net debt) / diluted shares$53.93

WACC 8.2% | g 2.5%

Comparable MidpointN/A

Insufficient peer coverage for a publishable comps set.

Upside / Downside34.6%

Enterprise value $84.0B

Diluted Shares iDiluted sharesShare count adjusted for options and other securities that could convert into common stock.Value/share = equity value / diluted shares1,482,900,000

Net debt $4.1B

Nike (NKE) Valuation, WACC and Intrinsic Value Analysis

This section connects Nike valuation, intrinsic value, WACC, and cost of capital language to the public valuation framing.

Stock Valuation

NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is valued here with a $53.93 target price versus a current price of $40.06.

Intrinsic Value

The base DCF intrinsic value is $53.93 per share using a 8.2% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth assumption.

Peer Multiples

Comparable valuation is not blended into the published target because the available peer set was not strong enough for a reliable range.

Growth and Investment Outlook

The public outlook section keeps NKE valuation framing, intrinsic-value context, and price-target assumptions visible before the detailed DCF work.

Long-Term Growth Prospects

The model starts from -1% revenue growth and fades toward 2.3% steady-state growth under a turnaround forecast profile.

Investment Outlook

The current public outlook is BUY, with a $53.93 target price and 34.6% modeled upside/downside. The main valuation cross-check is the DCF value of $53.93 per share.

Analyst Estimate Coverage

Analyst estimate inputs are used where available for forecast years 1, 2, 3. This page is not an external analyst-ratings feed; it is a public valuation note built from the available report data.

Fiscal yearRevenueRevenue growthNet incomeNet income growth
2024$51.4B0.3%$5.7B12.4%
2025$46.3B-9.8%$3.2B-43.5%
2026$46.4B0.2%$3.1B-3.4%

Investment Summary

The call, the valuation anchor, and the main risk in one view.

Recommendation

BUY NIKE, Inc. is rated BUY with a target price of $53.93 versus the current price of $40.06.

Valuation Anchor

The DCF implies $53.93 per share. Comparable valuation is excluded here because the available peer set was not strong enough for a reliable range.

Key Risk

Key risks for NIKE, Inc.

Key Data

Quick facts investors usually scan first.

Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
Exchange
NYSE
Market Cap
$59.3B
Revenue
$46.4B
Free Cash Flow
$2.2B

Latest Update / What Changed

Updates focus on what changed in the rating, target price, valuation assumptions, peer context, and main risks.

Rating

Still BUY

Target Change

+$0.01 versus the prior published target of $53.92.

Prior Version

Last captured on 8/11/2026 with 28.1% modeled upside.

Pro includes the full change log, watchlist alerts, and weekly digest for readers following multiple names.

Revenue Growth

Historical revenue plus a 5-year forecast shaped by analyst estimates in the early years and a rules-based turnaround fade after that.

Price History

Use the range selector to compare shorter and longer setups.

Last 5 years of monthly price observations (60 points).

DCF Sensitivity Grid

The grid shows DCF-only value per share across WACC and terminal growth assumptions. The published target price can differ because it currently relies on DCF only.

Base-Case DCF$53.93
Comparable MidpointN/A
Published Target$53.93

Base-case DCF and the center cell should reconcile closely because both use the same blended terminal-value method (8.2% WACC / 2.5% g). The published target currently equals the DCF output because comparable coverage was insufficient.

Base-case cell: $53.94 using 8.2% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth.

WACC \ g1.5%2%2.5%3%3.5%
6.2%$62.38$65.20$68.79$73.48$79.91
7.2%$56.02$57.84$60.04$62.76$66.21
8.2%$51.23$52.48$53.94$55.69$57.81
9.2%$47.41$48.31$49.35$50.55$51.96
10.2%$44.24$44.92$45.68$46.56$47.56

Peer Multiples

Simple comparable valuation cross-check using selected public-market peers.

Comparable valuation is not shown because fewer than three suitable peers had usable valuation data after screening for industry, size, and exchange.

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Revision History

Pro keeps the revision trail for refreshed reports so changes in target price, rating, and assumptions are easy to inspect.

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Scenario monitor

Bear, base, and bull valuation cases

Cases come from the report's published WACC and terminal-growth sensitivity grid.

Pro turns the public sensitivity grid into named cases so you can compare downside and upside assumptions quickly across every stock you track.

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How to Read the Valuation

Plain-English definitions for the main inputs and outputs.

Discount Rate iWACCWeighted average cost of capital is the discount rate used to value future cash flows, blending the cost of equity and debt.WACC = (E/V) x Re + (D/V) x Rd x (1 - T)

The base-case valuation discounts forecast cash flows using a WACC of 8.2%. The cost of equity starts from a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.7% as of Aug 17, 2026. Higher discount rates reduce present value, while lower ones increase it.

Terminal Assumption iTerminal growthThe long-run growth assumption used after the explicit forecast period to estimate continuing value.TV = FCF x (1 + g) / (WACC - g)

After year five, the model uses a terminal growth rate of 2.5% to estimate continuing value. In the base case, terminal value is blended with an exit-multiple cross-check rather than relying on perpetuity growth alone.

Forecast Curve

Revenue starts from -1% and fades toward a steady-state growth rate of 2.3% under a turnaround profile. The first 3 forecast years use analyst estimates where coverage is available.

Cross-Checks iEV/EBITDAEnterprise value divided by EBITDA, a common multiple for comparing companies with different capital structures.EV/EBITDA = enterprise value / EBITDA iP/EPrice-to-earnings compares the stock price to earnings per share and is a common equity valuation multiple.P/E = share price / earnings per share

Peer multiples anchor a market-based valuation range and help test whether the DCF output looks reasonable relative to similar businesses. If the available peer set is not strong enough, the published target stays DCF-only.

NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

Company Snapshot

  • Sector: Consumer Cyclical
  • Industry: Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Current Price: $40.06
  • Target Price: $53.93
  • Recommendation: BUY
  • Market Cap: $59.3B

NIKE, Inc. screens BUY with a DCF-based target price of $53.93, versus a current price of $40.06 and modeled upside of 34.6%.

Investment Thesis

We initiate coverage on NIKE, Inc. with a BUY recommendation, projecting a significant upside of 34.62% from its current price of $40.06 to a target price of $53.93. This target is derived from our discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, which indicates an intrinsic value per share of $53.93. The company's strong global presence and diverse brand portfolio position it favorably for future growth and market leadership.

Business Overview

NIKE, Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. The company operates under its primary NIKE brand, offering performance sports gear, and also manages well-known brands such as Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell. Its extensive product catalog is distributed globally through various channels, including specialized retail stores, proprietary retail outlets, digital e-commerce platforms, independent distributors, authorized licensees, and sales representatives. Founded in 1964 as Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc., the company officially became NIKE, Inc. in 1971 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.

Financial Analysis

NIKE, Inc. reported robust financial performance with total revenue of $46,398,000,000. The company generated an EBIT of $3,953,000,000 and EBITDA also at $3,953,000,000, demonstrating strong operational profitability. Free cash flow stood at $2,184,000,000, indicating healthy cash generation. Our discounted cash flow model, which underpins our target price, utilized a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 8.22% and a terminal growth rate of 2.50% with a terminal exit multiple of 15.7. Comparable valuation is unavailable.

Latest Reported Snapshot

Metric Value
Revenue $46.4B
EBIT $4.0B
EBITDA $4.0B
Free Cash Flow $2.2B
Diluted Shares 1,482,900,000

DCF Valuation

Metric Value
Intrinsic Value / Share $53.93
Forecast Profile turnaround
Starting Growth -1%
Steady-State Growth 2.3%
Risk-Free Rate 4.7%
Equity Risk Premium 4.5%
WACC 8.2%
Terminal Growth 2.5%
Exit Multiple 15.7x
Enterprise Value $84.0B
Equity Value $80.0B
Upside / Downside 34.6%

Comparable Valuation

Metric Value
Comparable Coverage Insufficient
Peer Set Support N/A
Median EV/EBITDA N/A
Median P/E N/A
Fair Value Low N/A
Fair Value High N/A
Fair Value Mid N/A

Comparable valuation is unavailable because there are not enough suitable peers with usable valuation data.

Risks

Key risks for NIKE, Inc. include intense competition within the global athletic footwear and apparel market, which could impact market share and pricing power. Shifts in consumer preferences and fashion trends pose a continuous challenge, requiring constant innovation and marketing investment to maintain brand relevance. Furthermore, the company's global operations expose it to supply chain disruptions, foreign exchange fluctuations, and geopolitical risks. Economic downturns could also reduce discretionary consumer spending on athletic products, affecting sales and profitability.

Common valuation questions

Short answers built from the same public report data, valuation assumptions, and peer context shown above.

What is the current price target for NIKE, Inc. (NKE) stock?

The current public note carries a BUY view with a $53.93 target price versus $40.06 today, implying 34.6% modeled upside/downside.

What intrinsic value does the DCF imply for NKE?

The base-case DCF on this page implies $53.93 per share before any comparable overlay, which is why it remains the core valuation anchor in the public report.

What WACC and terminal growth assumptions are used in the NKE valuation?

The public DCF uses a 8.2% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth assumption. Analyst estimate inputs are used where available for forecast years 1, 2, 3.

What is the current NKE growth and investment outlook?

The current public view on NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is BUY, with a $53.93 target price versus $40.06 today. The model starts from -1% revenue growth and fades toward 2.3% in the steady state.

Research Notes and Disclaimer

Important context around timing, methodology, and usage.

Freshness

Published August 19, 2026. Market data is shown as of Aug 18, 2026 and financial statements run through May 31, 2026.

Methodology

Valuation outputs are rules-based. Written commentary is based on structured report data and should be read alongside the valuation tables and sensitivity analysis. The risk-free rate is sourced from cache:financial-modeling-prep.

Not Investment Advice

This report is provided for information only and does not take into account your objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances.

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