Value/share = (PV of forecast FCF + PV of terminal value - net debt) / diluted shares$53.46WACC 8.8% | g 2.5%
Insufficient peer coverage for a publishable comps set.
Enterprise value $82.4B
Value/share = equity value / diluted shares1,487,600,000Net debt $2.9B
Investment Summary
The call, the valuation anchor, and the main risk in one view.
BUY NIKE, Inc. is rated BUY with a target price of $53.46 versus the current price of $44.19.
The DCF implies $53.46 per share. Comparable valuation is excluded here because the peer set did not clear the quality threshold.
While our investment thesis for NIKE, Inc.
Key Data
Quick facts investors usually scan first.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Market Cap
- $65.3B
- Revenue
- $46.3B
- Free Cash Flow
- $3.3B
Revenue Growth
Historical revenue plus a 5-year forecast shaped by analyst estimates in the early years and a deterministic turnaround fade after that.
Price History
Use the range selector to compare shorter and longer setups.
DCF Sensitivity Grid
The grid shows DCF-only value per share across WACC and terminal growth assumptions. The published target price can differ because it currently relies on DCF only.
Base-case DCF and the center cell should reconcile closely because both use the same blended terminal-value method (8.8% WACC / 2.5% g). The published target currently equals the DCF output because comparable coverage was insufficient.
Base-case cell: $53.51 using 8.8% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth.
| WACC \ g | 1.5% | 2% | 2.5% | 3% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $61.23 | $63.57 | $66.44 | $70.07 | $74.78 |
| 7.8% | $55.54 | $57.11 | $58.97 | $61.22 | $63.99 |
| 8.8% | $51.10 | $52.22 | $53.51 | $55.03 | $56.83 |
| 9.8% | $47.50 | $48.32 | $49.26 | $50.34 | $51.59 |
| 10.8% | $44.47 | $45.10 | $45.81 | $46.60 | $47.51 |
Peer Multiples
Simple comparable valuation cross-check using quality-screened peers.
Comparable valuation is not shown because there were fewer than three high-quality peers after filtering for industry, size, exchange, and usable valuation multiples.
How to Read the Valuation
Plain-English definitions for the main inputs and outputs.
The base-case valuation discounts forecast cash flows using a WACC of 8.8%. The cost of equity starts from a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.3% as of Apr 2, 2026. Higher discount rates reduce present value, while lower ones increase it.
After year five, the model uses a terminal growth rate of 2.5% to estimate continuing value. In the base case, terminal value is blended with an exit-multiple cross-check rather than relying on perpetuity growth alone.
Revenue starts from 0.4% and fades toward a steady-state growth rate of 2.3% under a turnaround profile. The first 3 forecast years use analyst estimates where coverage is available.
Peer multiples anchor a market-based valuation range and help test whether the DCF output looks reasonable relative to similar businesses. If the peer set is too weak, the published target stays DCF-only instead of blending in low-quality comparables.
NIKE, Inc. (NKE)
Company Snapshot
- Sector: Consumer Cyclical
- Industry: Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
- Exchange: NYSE
- Current Price: $44.19
- Target Price: $53.46
- Recommendation: BUY
- Market Cap: $65.3B
NIKE, Inc. screens BUY with a DCF-based target price of $53.46, versus a current price of $44.19 and modeled upside of 21%.
Investment Thesis
We initiate coverage on NIKE, Inc. (NKE) with a BUY recommendation, projecting a target price of $53.46, which represents an attractive upside of 20.98% from the current price of $44.19. This target price is derived from our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, which indicates an intrinsic value per share of $53.46, underscoring our conviction in the company's future cash flow generation capabilities.
Business Overview
NIKE, Inc. (NKE) operates within the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically in the Apparel - Footwear & Accessories industry. The company is a global leader in the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for men, women, and children. Its extensive brand portfolio includes NIKE, Jumpman, Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell, catering to a wide range of athletic and casual consumer needs worldwide.
Financial Analysis
NIKE, Inc. demonstrates a robust financial profile with reported revenue of $46.31 billion, EBIT of $3.70 billion, and EBITDA of $4.51 billion. The company also generated a substantial free cash flow of $3.27 billion. Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, which underpins our valuation, utilizes a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 8.84%, a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, and a terminal exit multiple of 14.4. Comparable valuation is unavailable based on the provided data.
Latest Reported Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.3B |
| EBIT | $3.7B |
| EBITDA | $4.5B |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.3B |
| Diluted Shares | 1,487,600,000 |
DCF Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Intrinsic Value / Share | $53.46 |
| Forecast Profile | turnaround |
| Starting Growth | 0.4% |
| Steady-State Growth | 2.3% |
| Risk-Free Rate | 4.3% |
| Equity Risk Premium | 4.5% |
| WACC | 8.8% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Exit Multiple | 14.4x |
| Enterprise Value | $82.4B |
| Equity Value | $79.5B |
| Upside / Downside | 21% |
Comparable Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Comparable Coverage | Insufficient |
| Average Peer Quality | N/A |
| Median EV/EBITDA | N/A |
| Median P/E | N/A |
| Fair Value Low | N/A |
| Fair Value High | N/A |
| Fair Value Mid | N/A |
Comparable valuation is unavailable because there are not enough high-quality peers under the current coverage filters.
Risks
While our investment thesis for NIKE, Inc. is positive, a comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors is not available in the provided data. Therefore, a detailed discussion of potential operational, market, or financial risks that could impact the company's performance or valuation cannot be provided at this time.
Research Notes and Disclaimer
Important context around timing, methodology, and usage.
Published April 3, 2026. Market data is shown as of Apr 2, 2026 and financial statements run through May 31, 2025.
Valuation outputs are deterministic and rules-based. Narrative sections are generated from structured report data and should be read alongside the valuation tables and sensitivity analysis. The risk-free rate is sourced from cache:financial-modeling-prep.
This report is provided for information only and does not take into account your objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances.
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