Value/share = (PV of forecast FCF + PV of terminal value - net debt) / diluted shares$29.21WACC 7% | g 2.5%
12.6x EV/EBITDA | 18.4x P/E
Enterprise value $201.1B
Value/share = equity value / diluted shares5,686,000,000Net debt $35.1B
Investment Summary
The call, the valuation anchor, and the main risk in one view.
HOLD Pfizer Inc. is rated HOLD with a target price of $30.59 versus the current price of $28.06.
The DCF implies $29.21 per share and the comparable midpoint lands at $34.72.
First, revenue growth could decelerate faster than the model fade path, especially if current market demand is cyclical.
Key Data
Quick facts investors usually scan first.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - General
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Market Cap
- $159.6B
- Revenue
- $62.6B
- Free Cash Flow
- $9.1B
Revenue Growth
Historical revenue plus a 5-year forecast shaped by analyst estimates in the early years and a deterministic turnaround fade after that.
Price History
Use the range selector to compare shorter and longer setups.
DCF Sensitivity Grid
The grid shows DCF-only value per share across WACC and terminal growth assumptions. The published target price can differ because it blends DCF with market comparables.
Base-case DCF and the center cell should reconcile closely because both use the same blended terminal-value method (7% WACC / 2.5% g). The published target then applies a 25% comparable overlay to the DCF value.
Base-case cell: $29.25 using 7% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth.
| WACC \ g | 1.5% | 2% | 2.5% | 3% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | $36.41 | $39.80 | $44.55 | $51.68 | $63.56 |
| 6% | $30.53 | $32.44 | $34.89 | $38.16 | $42.73 |
| 7% | $26.58 | $27.78 | $29.25 | $31.08 | $33.44 |
| 8% | $23.67 | $24.49 | $25.45 | $26.61 | $28.02 |
| 9% | $21.40 | $21.99 | $22.66 | $23.45 | $24.38 |
Peer Multiples
Simple comparable valuation cross-check using quality-screened peers.
| Peer | EV/EBITDA | P/E |
|---|---|---|
| MRK | 11.8x | 14.5x |
| AMGN | 14x | 22.8x |
| BMY | 10.1x | 15.6x |
| GILD | 15.7x | 17.9x |
| JNJ | 13.3x | 18.8x |
| BIIB | 9.6x | 20x |
How to Read the Valuation
Plain-English definitions for the main inputs and outputs.
The base-case valuation discounts forecast cash flows using a WACC of 7%. The cost of equity starts from a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.4% as of Apr 3, 2026. Higher discount rates reduce present value, while lower ones increase it.
After year five, the model uses a terminal growth rate of 2.5% to estimate continuing value. In the base case, terminal value is blended with an exit-multiple cross-check rather than relying on perpetuity growth alone.
Revenue starts from -6.6% and fades toward a steady-state growth rate of 2.3% under a turnaround profile. The first 3 forecast years use analyst estimates where coverage is available.
Peer multiples anchor a market-based valuation range and help test whether the DCF output looks reasonable relative to similar businesses. The published target price currently uses a 75% DCF / 25% comparable blend, which is why it can differ from the DCF sensitivity grid. The screened peer set cleared an average quality score of 75%.
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Company Snapshot
- Sector: Healthcare
- Industry: Drug Manufacturers - General
- Exchange: NYSE
- Current Price: $28.06
- Target Price: $30.59
- Recommendation: HOLD
- Market Cap: $159.6B
Pfizer Inc. screens HOLD with a blended target price of $30.59, versus a current price of $28.06 and modeled upside of 9%.
Investment Thesis
Pfizer Inc. screens as a HOLD because the automated valuation stack points to 9% upside versus the current market price. The DCF carries most of the target price and is supported by a business that still compounds from a $62.6B revenue base while sustaining 16.3% EBIT margins.
Business Overview
Pfizer Inc. operates in drug manufacturers - general within the healthcare sector. The company is modeled as a US-listed business with revenue in USD and exchange exposure through NYSE. The current comparable set is anchored around MRK, AMGN, BMY, GILD, JNJ, BIIB. The current report structure is built for equity research use cases: company snapshot, thesis, financial analysis, valuation, and risk framing.
Financial Analysis
Historical statements indicate a business with improving operating leverage and positive free cash flow generation. Our rules-based forecast extends that pattern over five years using normalized revenue growth, margin stabilization, capital intensity, and working capital behavior. DCF fair value lands at $29.21 per share, while the blended target price after applying comparable valuation support is $30.59. Comparable medians of 12.6x EV/EBITDA and 18.4x P/E across MRK, AMGN, BMY, GILD, JNJ, BIIB frame a $33.66 to $35.78 fair value range.
Latest Reported Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $62.6B |
| EBIT | $10.2B |
| EBITDA | $15.1B |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.1B |
| Diluted Shares | 5,686,000,000 |
DCF Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Intrinsic Value / Share | $29.21 |
| Forecast Profile | turnaround |
| Starting Growth | -6.6% |
| Steady-State Growth | 2.3% |
| Risk-Free Rate | 4.4% |
| Equity Risk Premium | 4.5% |
| WACC | 7% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Exit Multiple | 12.6x |
| Enterprise Value | $201.1B |
| Equity Value | $166.1B |
| Upside / Downside | 9% |
Comparable Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Comparable Coverage | 6 peers |
| Average Peer Quality | 75% |
| Median EV/EBITDA | 12.6x |
| Median P/E | 18.4x |
| Fair Value Low | $33.66 |
| Fair Value High | $35.78 |
| Fair Value Mid | $34.72 |
| Peer | EV/EBITDA | P/E |
|---|---|---|
| MRK | 11.8x | 14.5x |
| AMGN | 14x | 22.8x |
| BMY | 10.1x | 15.6x |
| GILD | 15.7x | 17.9x |
| JNJ | 13.3x | 18.8x |
| BIIB | 9.6x | 20x |
Risks
Key risks remain deterministic rather than narrative-only. First, revenue growth could decelerate faster than the model fade path, especially if current market demand is cyclical. Second, margin normalization may prove too optimistic if price competition, mix shift, or incremental operating expense dilute returns. Third, valuation is sensitive to the discount rate: WACC at 7% and terminal growth at 2.5% are reasonable base assumptions, but even modest moves in either direction can materially shift intrinsic value.
Research Notes and Disclaimer
Important context around timing, methodology, and usage.
Published April 6, 2026. Market data is shown as of Apr 6, 2026 and financial statements run through Dec 31, 2025.
Valuation outputs are deterministic and rules-based. Narrative sections are generated from structured report data and should be read alongside the valuation tables and sensitivity analysis. The risk-free rate is sourced from financial-modeling-prep.
This report is provided for information only and does not take into account your objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances.
Get Future Reports by Email
Subscribe to receive newly published notes and alerts when requested stocks go live.