Value/share = (PV of forecast FCF + PV of terminal value - net debt) / diluted shares$582.56WACC 7.5% | g 2.5%
24.3x EV/EBITDA | 34.2x P/E
Enterprise value $251.5B
Value/share = equity value / diluted shares377,000,000Net debt $31.9B
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Forecast, Valuation and Price Target
This section connects Thermo Fisher Scientific forecast and analysis language to the public valuation work, target price, and risk framing.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) is valued here with a $582.56 target price versus a current price of $475.66.
The base DCF intrinsic value is $582.56 per share using a 7.5% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth assumption.
The screened peer set shows median multiples of 24.3x EV/EBITDA and 34.2x P/E, producing a midpoint of $748.29.
Growth and Investment Outlook
The public outlook section keeps TMO forecast, valuation, and life-science-tools demand context visible before the deeper DCF and comparable detail.
The model starts from 1% revenue growth and fades toward 2.3% steady-state growth under a turnaround forecast profile.
The current public outlook is BUY, with a $582.56 target price and 22.5% modeled upside/downside. The main valuation cross-check is the DCF value of $582.56 per share.
Analyst estimate inputs are used where available for forecast years 1, 2, 3. This page is not an external analyst-ratings feed; it is a public valuation note built from the available report data.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Revenue growth | Net income | Net income growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $42.9B | -4.6% | $6.0B | -13.7% |
| 2024 | $42.9B | 0.1% | $6.3B | 5.7% |
| 2025 | $44.6B | 3.9% | $6.7B | 6.3% |
Investment Summary
The call, the valuation anchor, and the main risk in one view.
BUY Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. is rated BUY with a target price of $582.56 versus the current price of $475.66.
The DCF implies $582.56 per share and the comparable midpoint lands at $748.29.
First, revenue growth could decelerate faster than the model fade path, especially if current market demand is cyclical.
Key Data
Quick facts investors usually scan first.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Diagnostics & Research
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Market Cap
- $176.8B
- Revenue
- $44.6B
- Free Cash Flow
- $6.3B
Latest Update / What Changed
Updates focus on what changed in the rating, target price, valuation assumptions, peer context, and main risks.
This is the first version of this note. Future refreshes will summarize the main rating, target, valuation, peer, and risk changes here.
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Revenue Growth
Historical revenue plus a 5-year forecast shaped by analyst estimates in the early years and a rules-based turnaround fade after that.
Price History
Use the range selector to compare shorter and longer setups.
DCF Sensitivity Grid
The grid shows DCF-only value per share across WACC and terminal growth assumptions. The published target price can differ because it currently relies on DCF only.
Base-case DCF and the center cell should reconcile closely because both use the same blended terminal-value method (7.5% WACC / 2.5% g). The published target currently equals the DCF output because comparable coverage was insufficient.
Base-case cell: $583.31 using 7.5% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth.
| WACC \ g | 1.5% | 2% | 2.5% | 3% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $701.59 | $745.45 | $803.99 | $886.02 | $1,009.29 |
| 6.5% | $611.03 | $637.28 | $670.11 | $712.35 | $768.72 |
| 7.5% | $545.40 | $562.63 | $583.31 | $608.60 | $640.22 |
| 8.5% | $494.37 | $506.40 | $520.45 | $537.05 | $556.98 |
| 9.5% | $452.75 | $461.55 | $471.60 | $483.20 | $496.74 |
Peer Multiples
Simple comparable valuation cross-check using selected public-market peers.
6 selected peers were included in the valuation cross-check.
24.3x EV/EBITDA and 34.2x P/E.
$742.34 to $754.25, midpoint $748.29.
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Revision History
Pro keeps the revision trail for refreshed reports so changes in target price, rating, and assumptions are easy to inspect.
Unlock revision historyBear, base, and bull valuation cases
Cases come from the report's published WACC and terminal-growth sensitivity grid.
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Unlock scenario casesHow to Read the Valuation
Plain-English definitions for the main inputs and outputs.
The base-case valuation discounts forecast cash flows using a WACC of 7.5%. The cost of equity starts from a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5% as of Jun 11, 2026. Higher discount rates reduce present value, while lower ones increase it.
After year five, the model uses a terminal growth rate of 2.5% to estimate continuing value. In the base case, terminal value is blended with an exit-multiple cross-check rather than relying on perpetuity growth alone.
Revenue starts from 1% and fades toward a steady-state growth rate of 2.3% under a turnaround profile. The first 3 forecast years use analyst estimates where coverage is available.
Peer multiples anchor a market-based valuation range and help test whether the DCF output looks reasonable relative to similar businesses. If the available peer set is not strong enough, the published target stays DCF-only.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)
Company Snapshot
- Sector: Healthcare
- Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
- Exchange: NYSE
- Current Price: $475.66
- Target Price: $582.56
- Recommendation: BUY
- Market Cap: $176.8B
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. screens BUY with a DCF-based target price of $582.56, versus a current price of $475.66 and modeled upside of 22.5%.
Investment Thesis
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. screens as a BUY because the valuation model points to 22.5% upside versus the current market price. The DCF carries most of the target price and is supported by a business that still compounds from a $44.6B revenue base while sustaining 19.5% EBIT margins.
Business Overview
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. operates in medical - diagnostics & research within the healthcare sector. The company is modeled as a US-listed business with revenue in USD and exchange exposure through NYSE. The current comparable set is anchored around DHR, A, LH, MTD, IDXX, WAT. The current report structure is built for equity research use cases: company snapshot, thesis, financial analysis, valuation, and risk framing.
Financial Analysis
Historical statements indicate a business with improving operating leverage and positive free cash flow generation. Our rules-based forecast extends that pattern over five years using normalized revenue growth, margin stabilization, capital intensity, and working capital behavior. DCF fair value lands at $582.56 per share, while the blended target price after applying comparable valuation support is $582.56. Comparable medians of 24.3x EV/EBITDA and 34.2x P/E across DHR, A, LH, MTD, IDXX, WAT frame a $742.34 to $754.25 fair value range.
Latest Reported Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.6B |
| EBIT | $8.7B |
| EBITDA | $11.5B |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.3B |
| Diluted Shares | 377,000,000 |
DCF Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Intrinsic Value / Share | $582.56 |
| Forecast Profile | turnaround |
| Starting Growth | 1% |
| Steady-State Growth | 2.3% |
| Risk-Free Rate | 4.5% |
| Equity Risk Premium | 4.5% |
| WACC | 7.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Exit Multiple | 24.3x |
| Enterprise Value | $251.5B |
| Equity Value | $219.6B |
| Upside / Downside | 22.5% |
Comparable Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Comparable Coverage | 6 peers |
| Peer Set Support | Included in cross-check |
| Median EV/EBITDA | 24.3x |
| Median P/E | 34.2x |
| Fair Value Low | $742.34 |
| Fair Value High | $754.25 |
| Fair Value Mid | $748.29 |
| Peer | EV/EBITDA | P/E |
|---|---|---|
| DHR | 25.3x | 44.8x |
| A | 23.4x | 31.8x |
| LH | 13.7x | 23.8x |
| MTD | 25.1x | 33.1x |
| IDXX | 37.5x | 51.1x |
| WAT | 23.2x | 35.2x |
Risks
Key risks remain tied to the model assumptions. First, revenue growth could decelerate faster than the model fade path, especially if current market demand is cyclical. Second, margin normalization may prove too optimistic if price competition, mix shift, or incremental operating expense dilute returns. Third, valuation is sensitive to the discount rate: WACC at 7.5% and terminal growth at 2.5% are reasonable base assumptions, but even modest moves in either direction can materially shift intrinsic value.
Common valuation questions
Short answers built from the same public report data, valuation assumptions, and peer context shown above.
What is the current price target for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) stock?
The current public note carries a BUY view with a $582.56 target price versus $475.66 today, implying 22.5% modeled upside/downside.
What intrinsic value does the DCF imply for TMO?
The base-case DCF on this page implies $582.56 per share before any comparable overlay, which is why it remains the core valuation anchor in the public report.
What WACC and terminal growth assumptions are used in the TMO valuation?
The public DCF uses a 7.5% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth assumption. Analyst estimate inputs are used where available for forecast years 1, 2, 3.
How do peer multiples compare with the DCF view for TMO?
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) is cross-checked against a peer set with median multiples of 24.3x EV/EBITDA and 34.2x P/E, producing a comparable midpoint of $748.29. The published target price is $582.56, with a 0% comparable overlay when peer quality is strong enough.
Research Notes and Disclaimer
Important context around timing, methodology, and usage.
Published June 12, 2026. Market data is shown as of Jun 11, 2026 and financial statements run through Dec 31, 2025.
Valuation outputs are rules-based. Written commentary is based on structured report data and should be read alongside the valuation tables and sensitivity analysis. The risk-free rate is sourced from cache:financial-modeling-prep.
This report is provided for information only and does not take into account your objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances.
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